AIMAI Infra Monitor
AI Infra Monitor · demand side

Hyperscaler capex, contracted backlog, AI-lab commitments

Who is paying for the megawatts? The capacity tracker counts sellable AI megawatts on the supply side. This page watches the demand that fills them: what the five big buyers spend and guide, what the sellers have under contract, and what the frontier labs have committed to. Capex rows as of —, contracted rows as of —, lab register through —. Every figure carries its disclosure date and source; secondary marks a size supported only by press reports. Research, not P&L.

1 · Hyperscaler capex — reported vs guided

Cash paid for property and equipment from each 10-Q/10-K (FMP cash-flow statement), one row per reported quarter since Q1 2025 plus the Q4 2024 base. Each company's headline measure differs (Microsoft adds finance leases, Meta adds finance-lease principal, Amazon nets incentives, Oracle nets prepayments) — the basis toggle shows those alongside. q/q and trailing-4Q are computed from the company's own series. CoreWeave and Nebius are shown as buyer context and excluded from cohort totals.

Stacked bars: quarterly cash capex, $B, by calendar quarter of the period end (Oracle's Feb/May/Aug/Nov quarters are placed in the calendar quarter they end in). Bar height is the five-company total; a faded bar is a quarter not all five have reported yet, so its height is not a cohort total. Hover a segment for the quarter's guide text.

Spend so far against the full-year guide

Each company's latest stated full-year guide, against what it has spent so far in that year on the measure it guides on (its headline measure, so Microsoft and Meta include leases and the bars will not match the cash bars above). The tick is where an even quarterly pace would be. The second line is what the rest of the year averages if the company lands on its midpoint — arithmetic on the company's own guide, not a forecast. One $ scale; rows are never added up.

spent to date, $Bguided full-year rangeeven quarterly pace

Quarter by quarter — cash PP&E and each company's headline measure

Basis

Hover a cell for the call date and the guide given that day; hover a company for its measurement basis. In headline mode each company row names the measure it shows. Blank = not disclosed in the cited materials, not zero.

Guide revision series — full-year capex guide as stated on each call

Midpoint of the range given on each call, in call order. Revision and vs actual use stated full-year guides only: ~ marks an implied or carried figure shown in the path but not counted, ≥ a guide stated as a floor. Each company guides on its own basis (shown under the ticker), so rows are compared within a company, never added up. Guides without a dollar figure are listed in the quotes below. secondary marks a guide verified only through press coverage.

2 · Contracted demand — RPO, backlog and the lab register

Each seller's own metric, named verbatim: Microsoft commercial RPO and Oracle RPO (from the calls above), CoreWeave revenue backlog, Nebius RPO, IREN accounting RPO (then RPO + lease value), Applied Digital / Core Scientific / Galaxy / TeraWulf lifetime contracted lease revenue. These are not one comparable series — perimeters change (IREN 2026Q2, TeraWulf each quarter) and lifetime contract revenue is not a remaining balance. carry = an earlier disclosure carried forward, no new measurement.

AI-lab compute commitments and funding — dated register

Announcements by OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and Meta (as a buyer of external compute): counterparty, type, size as disclosed, term and source. Programs, LOIs, guarantees, funding rounds and cumulative updates overlap — the sizes are deliberately not summed, and the line under each $ figure says what it measures. Primary means the size comes from a company, lab or SEC source; secondary rows link the press report. Filter by lab or sourcing.

Lab
Sourcing

3 · Cross-check — buyer spend vs contracted neocloud megawatts

The denominator is the tenant-disclosed, de-duplicated contracted MW from neocloud-capacity.json (same dupe rule as the tracker: CoreWeave's tenant overlap, the ORCL/SPCX benchmarks, BTBT's parent row and the AKAM context row are excluded). The numerator is the five hyperscalers' latest reported quarter annualised. The two sides do not fund each other directly, so the ratio is a ratio of disclosure for scale only. It is not a capacity price, not a share-of-spend measure and not a forecast; read the capex and contracted panels for direction.

AI Infra Monitor · built by Eric Wyluda · source
Also by the author: MacroGauge (data center cost indexes) · GPU Price Index (compute rental prices)
Research and analysis only, not investment advice. Market prices: FMP (equities) and Nasdaq (ETF history), shown with their quote dates.