{ "schema_version": 1, "as_of": "2026-10-26", "capex_as_of": "2026-10-21", "contracted_as_of": "2026-10-07", "labs_as_of": "2026-10-01", "title": "AI Demand Monitor — hyperscaler capex, contracted backlog and AI-lab commitments", "note": "Demand side of the AI buildout: what the buyers of capacity disclose. Canonical source for ai-demand-monitor.{md,html}. $B unless noted. Every row carries the date it was disclosed (as_of) and a primary source; sourcing='secondary' marks figures supported only by press accounts. Derived series (q/q, trailing-4Q, run-rate, guide midpoints and revisions, capex-per-contracted-GW) are computed at render time by the refresh script and the HTML from the same formulas, never stored. Research, not P&L. Does not duplicate the neocloud capacity tracker — capacity_crosscheck is read from neocloud-capacity.json at sync time.", "sources_note": "Cash capex is FMP statements/cashflow-statement 'investmentsInPropertyPlantAndEquipment' (sign flipped), pulled 2026-10-25. Cross-checks: the five hyperscalers' quarterly figures and closed-year sums against their releases; CRWV against its 10-Q/10-K (H1 2025, 9M 2025, FY2025, H1 2026 cash paid for P&E); NBIS against the capex stated in its shareholder letters. Guide quotes, finance leases, RPO and contracted figures are from the linked releases and filings; guides whose quote comes from the call carry a guide.src and were checked against the FMP earningsTranscript text. Lab-register sizes marked primary link a company, lab or SEC source; secondary rows link the press report (press_src). Perplexity research (2026-10-25/26) located the sources; it is not cited as a source.", "basis": { "qoq": "capex[q] / capex[q-1] - 1 (within a company's own series)", "ttm": "sum of the company's latest four reported quarters of capex (null until four exist)", "run_rate": "latest reported quarter × 4, per company; the cohort run-rate sums the five hyperscalers' latest quarters, whose period-ends differ (the page prints the span)", "guide_mid": "(low + high) / 2 when both are numbers; a single number is its own midpoint; qualitative guides have no midpoint", "guide_revision": "per company and guide fiscal year, the ordered guide midpoints by call date; implied and carried points are shown but revision = last stated − first stated full-year guide; vs_actual = actual − last stated guide once fy_actual is recorded", "capex_per_contracted_gw": "hyperscaler cohort run-rate ($B/yr) ÷ de-duplicated tenant-disclosed contracted neocloud MW (GW) from neocloud-capacity.json. Scale context only: hyperscaler payments to neoclouds are mostly service fees or leases, not cash P&E, and the tenant list includes non-hyperscaler tenants. Not a forecast.", "latest_guide_move": "last stated full-year guide midpoint − the previous stated midpoint for the same fiscal year (null when only one exists)" }, "capex": { "companies": [ { "t": "MSFT", "name": "Microsoft", "cohort": "hyperscaler", "fy_end": "June", "capex_basis": "Cash paid for property and equipment (10-Q/10-K cash-flow statement, FMP cashflow-statement). Microsoft's headline 'capex including finance leases' is kept in capex_incl_leases; finance-lease ROU additions in fin_lease. Do not derive leases by subtraction — payment timing also moves the reconciliation.", "rpo_basis": "Commercial remaining performance obligation as stated on the call; share recognisable within 12 months in rpo.next_12m.", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0000789019&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2024Q4", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q2", "call_date": "2025-01-29", "as_of": "2025-01-29", "capex": 15.804, "filing_date": "2025-01-29", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q2", "capex_incl_leases": 22.6, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "Q3/Q4 spend similar to Q2; FY26 capex growth rate lower than FY25, mix shifts to short-lived assets", "low": null, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "qualitative" }, "rpo": { "value": 298, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "~40% within 12 months", "next_12m": 0.4 }, "fin_lease_rou": 6.435, "fin_lease": null, "fin_lease_note": "Call did not state a finance-lease figure; fin_lease_rou is ROU assets obtained under finance leases from the 10-Q lease note (different definition, not comparable to later quarters)." }, { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-04-30", "as_of": "2025-04-30", "capex": 16.745, "filing_date": "2025-04-30", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q3", "capex_incl_leases": 21.4, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "Q4 capex up sequentially; H2 total unchanged vs January; FY26 growth lower than FY25 with more short-lived assets", "low": null, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "qualitative" }, "rpo": { "value": 315, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "~40% within 12 months", "next_12m": 0.4 }, "fin_lease_rou": 3.241, "fin_lease": null, "fin_lease_note": "Call did not state a finance-lease figure; fin_lease_rou is ROU assets obtained under finance leases from the 10-Q lease note (different definition, not comparable to later quarters)." }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2025-07-30", "as_of": "2025-07-30", "capex": 17.079, "filing_date": "2025-07-30", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q4", "fin_lease": 6.5, "capex_incl_leases": 24.2, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "Q1 FY26 capex 'over $30B'; FY26 growth moderates vs FY25; H1 growth > H2 on finance-lease site timing", "low": 30, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "next_quarter" }, "rpo": { "value": 368, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "~35% within 12 months", "next_12m": 0.35 } }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2025-10-29", "as_of": "2025-10-29", "capex": 19.394, "filing_date": "2025-10-29", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q1", "fin_lease": 11.1, "capex_incl_leases": 34.9, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "Total spend up sequentially; FY26 growth rate now expected HIGHER than FY25 (GPU/CPU spend vs accelerating RPO)", "low": null, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "qualitative" }, "rpo": { "value": 392, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "weighted-average duration ~2y; EXCLUDES the $250B incremental Azure commitment OpenAI announced 2025-10-28" } }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2026-01-28", "as_of": "2026-01-28", "capex": 29.876, "filing_date": "2026-01-28", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q2", "fin_lease": 6.7, "capex_incl_leases": 37.5, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "Capex to DECREASE sequentially on build-out and finance-lease delivery timing; short-lived mix similar to Q2", "low": null, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "qualitative" }, "rpo": { "value": 625, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "net of reserves; ~45% OpenAI (~$281B implied, not a stated figure); non-OpenAI 'roughly $350B'; ~25% within 12 months; ~2.5y duration", "next_12m": 0.25, "openai_share": 0.45 } }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q3", "call_date": "2026-04-29", "as_of": "2026-04-29", "capex": 30.876, "filing_date": "2026-04-29", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q3", "fin_lease": 4.7, "capex_incl_leases": 31.9, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "Next quarter 'over $40B' incl. ~$5B component pricing; calendar 2026 'roughly $190B' incl. ~$25B component pricing", "low": 190, "high": 190, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 627, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "incl. OpenAI; ex-OpenAI +26% y/y; ~25% within 12 months; ~2.5y duration", "next_12m": 0.25 } }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q4", "call_date": "2026-07-29", "as_of": "2026-07-29", "capex": 35.802, "filing_date": "2026-07-29", "call_url": "https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4", "fin_lease": 5.6, "capex_incl_leases": 41.0, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "Calendar 2026 cut to ~$175B after future datacenter leases shift finance→operating (building useful life 15→25y); underlying investment unchanged; next quarter 'over $50B'; FY27 capex grows y/y", "low": 175, "high": 175, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 678, "metric": "commercial RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "ex-OpenAI +25% y/y; all sequential growth from non-frontier-lab customers; ~30% within 12 months; 2.3y duration", "next_12m": 0.3 } } ], "headline": { "field": "capex_incl_leases", "label": "capex incl. finance leases" }, "guide_basis": "calendar-year capex incl. finance leases" }, { "t": "GOOGL", "name": "Alphabet", "cohort": "hyperscaler", "fy_end": "December", "capex_basis": "Cash purchases of property and equipment (10-Q/10-K, FMP cashflow-statement). Finance-lease ROU additions are small and shown in fin_lease; 2025 annual lease cash flows include ~$1.1B prepayments on leases not yet commenced.", "rpo_basis": null, "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001652044&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2024Q4", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "fiscal": "FY24Q4", "call_date": "2025-02-04", "as_of": "2025-02-04", "capex": 14.276, "filing_date": "2025-02-05", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204425000010/googexhibit991q42024.htm", "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "'We expect to invest approximately $75 billion in CapEx in 2025' (CFO, Q4 2024 call)", "low": 75, "high": 75, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year", "src": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2025/2024-Q4-Earnings-Call/" } }, { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q1", "call_date": "2025-04-24", "as_of": "2025-04-24", "capex": 17.197, "filing_date": "2025-04-25", "call_url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2025/2025-Q1-Earnings-Call/", "fin_lease": 0.523, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "'We still expect to invest approximately $75 billion in CapEx this year' (unchanged); quarterly timing may fluctuate", "low": 75, "high": 75, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q2", "call_date": "2025-07-23", "as_of": "2025-07-23", "capex": 22.446, "filing_date": "2025-07-24", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1652044/000165204425000056/googexhibit991q22025.htm", "fin_lease": 0.083, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "Raised to approximately $85B from $75B (servers, delivery timing, accelerated DC construction)", "low": 85, "high": 85, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-10-29", "as_of": "2025-10-29", "capex": 23.953, "filing_date": "2025-10-30", "call_url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2025/2025-Q3-Earnings-Call-2025-4OI4Bac_Q9/default.aspx", "fin_lease": 0.383, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "$91–93B for 2025, up from $85B, subject to cash-payment timing", "low": 91, "high": 93, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2026-02-04", "as_of": "2026-02-04", "capex": 27.851, "filing_date": "2026-02-05", "call_url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2025-Q4-Earnings-Call-2026-Dr_C033hS6/default.aspx", "fin_lease": 0.617, "fy_actual": { "fy": "CY2025", "value": 91.447, "basis": "sum of quarterly cash P&E purchases; company said $91.4B 'in line with expectation'" }, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "Initial 2026 outlook $175–185B", "low": 175, "high": 185, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2026-04-29", "as_of": "2026-04-29", "capex": 35.674, "filing_date": "2026-04-30", "call_url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q1-Earnings-Call-2026-nW8kCrBAKS/default.aspx", "fin_lease": 0.211, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "$180–190B, up from $175–185B, to include the Intersect acquisition (closed March); '2027 CapEx to significantly increase compared to 2026'", "low": 180, "high": 190, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2026-07-22", "as_of": "2026-07-22", "capex": 44.924, "filing_date": "2026-07-23", "call_url": "https://abc.xyz/investor/events/event-details/2026/2026-Q2-Earnings-Call-2026-GgTAq7Is0z/default.aspx", "fin_lease": 0.691, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "$195–205B, up from $180–190B, primarily accelerated capacity delivery; 2027 still expected significantly higher (no range)", "low": 195, "high": 205, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } } ], "headline": { "field": "capex", "label": "capex = cash P&E purchases" }, "guide_basis": "cash P&E purchases" }, { "t": "AMZN", "name": "Amazon", "cohort": "hyperscaler", "fy_end": "December", "capex_basis": "Gross cash purchases of property and equipment (10-Q/10-K, FMP cashflow-statement). Management's 'cash capex' (net of P&E sales and incentives) is in cash_capex_mgmt; finance-lease asset additions in fin_lease and principal repayments of finance leases in fin_lease_principal. Guidance is stated on the cash-capex basis.", "rpo_basis": null, "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001018724&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2024Q4", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "fiscal": "FY24Q4", "call_date": "2025-02-06", "as_of": "2025-02-06", "capex": 27.834, "filing_date": "2025-02-07", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872425000002/amzn-20241231xex991.htm", "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "low": 105.2, "high": 105.2, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "implied", "text": "Q4 'capital investments' (cash capex + equipment finance leases) of $26.3B are 'reasonably representative of our 2025 capital investment rate' → ~$105B implied on that basis; the widely quoted ~$100B was an analyst's framing on the call", "src": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/events/event-details/2025/Q4-2024-Amazoncom-Inc-Earnings-Conference-Call/default.aspx" } }, { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q1", "call_date": "2025-05-01", "as_of": "2025-05-01", "capex": 25.019, "filing_date": "2025-05-02", "call_url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2025/Amazon-com-Announces-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx", "cash_capex_mgmt": 24.255, "fin_lease": 0.054, "fin_lease_principal": 0.41, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "No fresh full-year number verified on this call; ~$100B plan carried", "low": null, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "none" } }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q2", "call_date": "2025-07-31", "as_of": "2025-07-31", "capex": 32.183, "filing_date": "2025-08-01", "call_url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2025/Amazon-com-Announces-Second-Quarter-Results/default.aspx", "cash_capex_mgmt": 31.368, "fin_lease": 0.937, "fin_lease_principal": 0.411, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "'Q2 capex reasonably representative of the quarterly rate for the back half' → ~$118.5B implied (24.3 + 3×31.4), not stated guidance", "low": 118.5, "high": 118.5, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "implied" } }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-10-30", "as_of": "2025-10-30", "capex": 35.095, "filing_date": "2025-10-31", "call_url": "https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/amazon-earnings-q3-2025-report", "cash_capex_mgmt": 34.228, "fin_lease": 0.977, "fin_lease_principal": 0.351, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "Full-year cash capex approximately $125B in 2025, 'and we expect that amount will increase in 2026'", "low": 125, "high": 125, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2026-02-05", "as_of": "2026-02-05", "capex": 39.522, "filing_date": "2026-02-06", "call_url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-Fourth-Quarter-Results/", "cash_capex_mgmt": 38.469, "fin_lease": 0.943, "fin_lease_principal": 0.385, "fy_actual": { "fy": "CY2025", "value": 128.32, "basis": "management cash capex; gross cash P&E purchases were 131.819" }, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "'About $200 billion in capital expenditures across Amazon in 2026', predominantly AWS", "low": 200, "high": 200, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2026-04-29", "as_of": "2026-04-29", "capex": 44.203, "filing_date": "2026-04-30", "call_url": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/news-release/news-release-details/2026/Amazon-com-Announces-First-Quarter-Results/default.aspx", "cash_capex_mgmt": 43.234, "fin_lease": 1.565, "fin_lease_principal": 0.468, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "low": 200, "high": 200, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "carried", "text": "'I don't have … a new update on capital. Our plan is largely the same' (CEO, Q1 2026 call) — ~$200B plan carried", "src": "https://ir.aboutamazon.com/events/event-details/2026/Q1-2026-Amazoncom-Inc-Earnings-Conference-Call-/default.aspx" } }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2026-07-30", "as_of": "2026-07-30", "capex": 54.208, "filing_date": "2026-07-31", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018724/000101872426000024/amzn-20260630xex991.htm", "cash_capex_mgmt": 53.076, "fin_lease": 0.563, "fin_lease_principal": 0.395, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "'Approximately $220 billion in cash CapEx in 2026' vs ~$200B prior, on higher memory costs; still short of demand in 2026 and 2027", "low": 220, "high": 220, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } } ], "headline": { "field": "cash_capex_mgmt", "label": "cash capex (net of P&E proceeds and incentives)" }, "guide_basis": "cash capex (net); the 2024Q4 point is implied 'capital investments'" }, { "t": "META", "name": "Meta Platforms", "cohort": "hyperscaler", "fy_end": "December", "capex_basis": "Cash purchases of property and equipment (10-Q/10-K, FMP cashflow-statement). Meta's headline capex INCLUDES principal payments on finance leases; that headline is in capex_incl_leases and the principal in fin_lease_principal. Guidance is on the headline basis.", "rpo_basis": null, "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001326801&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2024Q4", "period_end": "2024-12-31", "fiscal": "FY24Q4", "call_date": "2025-01-29", "as_of": "2025-01-29", "capex": 14.425, "filing_date": "2025-01-30", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000132680125000014/meta-12312024xexhibit991.htm", "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "'We anticipate our full-year 2025 capital expenditures will be in the range of $60 billion to $65 billion' (CFO, Q4 2024 call)", "low": 60, "high": 65, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "capex_incl_leases": 14.84 }, { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q1", "call_date": "2025-04-30", "as_of": "2025-04-30", "capex": 12.941, "filing_date": "2025-05-01", "call_url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2025/Meta-Reports-First-Quarter-2025-Results/", "fin_lease_principal": 0.751, "capex_incl_leases": 13.69, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "$64–72B, increased from $60–65B (additional DC investment, higher hardware costs)", "low": 64, "high": 72, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q2", "call_date": "2025-07-30", "as_of": "2025-07-30", "capex": 16.538, "filing_date": "2025-07-31", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828025036719/meta-06302025xexhibit991.htm", "fin_lease_principal": 0.474, "capex_incl_leases": 17.01, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "text": "$66–72B, narrowed from $64–72B; 'similarly significant capex dollar growth in 2026'", "low": 66, "high": 72, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-10-29", "as_of": "2025-10-29", "capex": 18.829, "filing_date": "2025-10-30", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828025047114/meta-09302025xexhibit991.htm", "fin_lease_principal": 0.545, "capex_incl_leases": 19.37, "guide": { "fy": "CY2025", "low": 70, "high": 72, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year", "text": "'2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, … $70 billion to $72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $66 billion to $72 billion' (CFO, Q3 2025 call); 2026 dollar growth 'notably larger' than 2025" } }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2026-01-28", "as_of": "2026-01-28", "capex": 21.383, "filing_date": "2026-01-29", "call_url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results/default.aspx", "fin_lease_principal": 0.754, "capex_incl_leases": 22.14, "fy_actual": { "fy": "CY2025", "value": 72.215, "basis": "headline capex incl. finance-lease principal; cash P&E purchases 69.691" }, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "$115–135B incl. finance-lease principal (Meta Superintelligence Labs + core)", "low": 115, "high": 135, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2026-04-29", "as_of": "2026-04-29", "capex": 18.997, "filing_date": "2026-04-30", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1326801/000162828026028364/meta-03312026xexhibit991.htm", "fin_lease_principal": 0.843, "capex_incl_leases": 19.84, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "$125–145B from $115–135B (component pricing; DC costs for future-year capacity)", "low": 125, "high": 145, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2026-07-29", "as_of": "2026-07-29", "capex": 30.116, "filing_date": "2026-07-30", "call_url": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "fin_lease_principal": 0.962, "capex_incl_leases": 31.08, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "$130–145B, narrowed from $125–145B", "low": 130, "high": 145, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } }, { "q": "2026Q3", "period_end": "2026-09-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q3", "call_date": "2026-10-21", "as_of": "2026-10-21", "capex": 33.942, "filing_date": "2026-10-22", "call_url": "https://www.morningstar.com/news/pr-newswire/20261021sf75627/meta-reports-third-quarter-2026-results", "fin_lease_principal": 0.964, "capex_incl_leases": 34.91, "guide": { "fy": "CY2026", "text": "$135–145B, narrowed from $130–145B; 2027 budget still developing, 'continue investing aggressively' (no number)", "low": 135, "high": 145, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" } } ], "headline": { "field": "capex_incl_leases", "label": "capex incl. finance-lease principal" }, "guide_basis": "capex incl. finance-lease principal" }, { "t": "ORCL", "name": "Oracle", "cohort": "hyperscaler", "fy_end": "May", "capex_basis": "Reported capital expenditures (cash-flow statement, FMP cashflow-statement). Oracle's later 'net cash capex' (net of customer prepayments / timing) is in cash_capex_net where disclosed. Finance-lease additions were not quantified in the cited materials (null ≠ zero). Guidance is by Oracle fiscal year (June–May).", "rpo_basis": "Total remaining performance obligations per release/10-Q; share recognisable within 12 months in rpo.next_12m where disclosed.", "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001341439&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2024Q4", "period_end": "2024-11-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q2", "call_date": "2024-12-09", "as_of": "2024-12-09", "capex": 3.97, "filing_date": "2024-12-10", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2024/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-2025-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx", "guide": { "fy": "FY2025", "text": "Not captured in this pass", "low": null, "high": null, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "none" }, "rpo": { "value": 97, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "release: 'Total Remaining Performance Obligations $97 billion, up 49%'" } }, { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-02-28", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-03-10", "as_of": "2025-03-10", "capex": 5.862, "filing_date": "2025-03-11", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-2025-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx", "guide": { "fy": "FY2025", "text": "'FY2025 CapEx will be a little more than double last year at around $16 billion' (purchases front-loaded)", "low": 16, "high": 16, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 130, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "explicitly excludes any Stargate contracts; cloud >80%; ~31% within 12 months (secondary recap)", "next_12m": 0.31, "next_12m_sourcing": "secondary" } }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-05-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2025-06-11", "as_of": "2025-06-11", "capex": 9.08, "filing_date": "2025-06-18", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-2025-Fourth-Quarter-and-Fiscal-Full-Year-Financial-Results/default.aspx", "fy_actual": { "fy": "FY2025", "value": 21.2, "basis": "FY25 capex as stated on the call (vs ~$16B guide three months earlier)" }, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "'FY2026 CapEx will be higher at over $25 billion'; 'may turn out to be understated'", "low": 25, "high": 25, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year", "qualifier": "over" }, "rpo": { "value": 138, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "cloud ~80%; ~33% within 12 months", "next_12m": 0.33 } }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-08-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2025-09-09", "as_of": "2025-09-09", "capex": 8.502, "filing_date": "2025-09-10", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-Year-2026-First-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx", "cash_capex_net": 6.544, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "'Given our RPO growth, I now expect FY2026 CapEx will be around $35 billion', could be 'a little higher'", "low": 35, "high": 35, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 455, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "+$317B q/q; ~10% within 12 months, ~35% within 36 months (secondary); the ~$300B OpenAI contract is WSJ/Reuters-reported, not a company RPO split", "next_12m": 0.1, "next_12m_sourcing": "secondary" } }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-11-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2025-12-10", "as_of": "2025-12-10", "capex": 12.033, "filing_date": "2025-12-11", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2025/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-Year-2026-Second-Quarter-Financial-Results/", "cash_capex_net": 12.793, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "FY2026 capex 'about $15 billion higher than we forecasted after Q1' → ~$50B", "low": 50, "high": 50, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 523, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "next-12-month RPO +40% y/y; ~10% within 12 months, ~40% within 36 months (secondary)", "next_12m": 0.1, "next_12m_sourcing": "secondary" } }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-02-28", "fiscal": "FY26Q3", "call_date": "2026-03-10", "as_of": "2026-03-10", "capex": 18.635, "filing_date": "2026-03-11", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Fiscal-Year-2026-Third-Quarter-Financial-Results/default.aspx", "cash_capex_net": 17.166, "guide": { "fy": "FY2026", "text": "FY2026 capex $50B, 'unchanged from our most recent previous guidance'", "low": 50, "high": 50, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 553, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "10-Q: 12% within 12m, 31% months 13–36, 35% months 37–60; growth mostly AI contracts with prepayments or customer-supplied GPUs", "next_12m": 0.12 } }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-05-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q4", "call_date": "2026-06-10", "as_of": "2026-06-10", "capex": 16.493, "filing_date": "2026-06-22", "call_url": "https://investor.oracle.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/Oracle-Announces-Record-Q4-and-FY-2026-Results-Driven-by-Cloud-Infrastructure--Cloud-Applications/default.aspx", "cash_capex_net": 11.223, "fy_actual": { "fy": "FY2026", "value": 55.663, "basis": "reported capex, sum of quarters (vs $50B guide); net cash capex 47.726", "alt": { "value": 47.726, "basis": "net cash capex (metric introduced on the 2026-06-10 call; the FY26 guides predate it, so they are read as reported capex)" } }, "guide": { "fy": "FY2027", "text": "FY27 net cash capex ~$70B; customer prepayments/timing +$20–25B → reported capex ~$90–95B", "low": 90, "high": 95, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 638, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "12% within 12 months, 34% months 13–36", "next_12m": 0.12 } }, { "q": "2026Q3", "period_end": "2026-08-31", "fiscal": "FY27Q1", "call_date": "2026-09-10", "as_of": "2026-09-10", "capex": 28.499, "filing_date": "2026-09-11", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1341439/000119312526387905/orcl-ex99_1.htm", "cash_capex_net": 17.966, "guide": { "fy": "FY2027", "text": "'$90–95 billion in CapEx for the full year, with not more than $70 billion in net cash CapEx'; not linear through the year", "low": 90, "high": 95, "sourcing": "primary", "kind": "full_year" }, "rpo": { "value": 664, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "note": "~half converts within 36 months per CFO; 13%/37%/34%/16% buckets per secondary 10-Q recap", "next_12m": 0.13, "next_12m_sourcing": "secondary" } } ], "headline": { "field": "capex", "label": "reported capex (net cash capex in tooltip)" }, "guide_basis": "reported capex by Oracle fiscal year (Jun–May)" }, { "t": "CRWV", "name": "CoreWeave", "cohort": "neocloud_buyer", "fy_end": "December", "capex_basis": "Cash purchases of property and equipment (FMP cashflow-statement), tied to the 10-Q/10-K: H1 2025 $3.9B, 9M 2025 $6.249B, FY2025 $10.309B, H1 2026 $14.1B. CoreWeave's own 'CapEx' (capex_company, stated on each call: Q1'25 deck, later quarters on the call) is accrual-based and excludes construction in progress — FY2025 $14.9B vs $10.3B cash. No quarterly 2024Q4 disclosure exists (pre-IPO; the S-1 filed 2025-03-03 carries annual figures), so the series starts 2025Q1. Buyer context only: excluded from hyperscaler aggregates.", "rpo_basis": null, "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001769628&type=10-Q&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q1", "call_date": "2025-05-14", "as_of": "2025-05-14", "capex": 1.407, "filing_date": "2025-05-15", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962825000010/coreweave1q25earningspress.htm", "capex_company": 1.9 }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q2", "call_date": "2025-08-12", "as_of": "2025-08-12", "capex": 2.453, "filing_date": "2025-08-13", "call_url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/", "capex_company": 2.9 }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-11-10", "as_of": "2025-11-10", "capex": 2.389, "filing_date": "2025-11-13", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962825000059/coreweave3q25earningspress.htm", "capex_company": 1.9 }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2026-02-26", "as_of": "2026-02-26", "capex": 4.06, "filing_date": "2026-03-02", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000094/coreweave4q25earningspress.htm", "capex_company": 8.2 }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2026-05-07", "as_of": "2026-05-07", "capex": 7.695, "filing_date": "2026-05-08", "call_url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-First-Quarter-2026-Results/", "capex_company": 6.8 }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-08-11", "capex": 6.422, "filing_date": "2026-08-12", "call_url": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "capex_company": 9.4 } ], "headline": { "field": "capex_company", "label": "company-reported capex (accrual; excludes construction in progress)" } }, { "t": "NBIS", "name": "Nebius", "cohort": "neocloud_buyer", "fy_end": "December", "capex_basis": "Cash purchases of property and equipment (6-K/20-F, FMP cashflow-statement); matches the capex stated in each shareholder letter ($955.5M, ~$2.1B, ~$2.5B, ~$5.7B). Nebius reported H1 2025 capex only as a half-year, so the series starts 2025Q3. Buyer context only: excluded from hyperscaler aggregates.", "rpo_basis": null, "filings_url": "https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001513845&type=6-K&dateb=&owner=include&count=40", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "fiscal": "FY25Q3", "call_date": "2025-11-11", "as_of": "2025-11-11", "capex": 0.956, "filing_date": "2025-11-12", "call_url": "https://assets.nebius.com/assets/94ab89ea-f954-4516-89f0-1c137e0edd56/Nebius%20Group%20Q3%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf" }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "fiscal": "FY25Q4", "call_date": "2026-02-12", "as_of": "2026-02-12", "capex": 2.056, "filing_date": "2026-04-30", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926013946/tm266173d1_ex99-2.htm" }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "fiscal": "FY26Q1", "call_date": "2026-05-13", "as_of": "2026-05-13", "capex": 2.473, "filing_date": "2026-05-13", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926064092/nbis-20260331xex99d1.htm" }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "fiscal": "FY26Q2", "call_date": "2026-08-12", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "capex": 5.657, "filing_date": "2026-08-12", "call_url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm" } ], "headline": { "field": "capex", "label": "capex per shareholder letter (equals cash P&E)" } } ] }, "contracted": { "companies": [ { "t": "MSFT", "name": "Microsoft", "metric": "commercial RPO", "from_capex_panel": true, "note": "Series lives in the capex panel (rpo field); mirrored here by the sync script." }, { "t": "ORCL", "name": "Oracle", "metric": "RPO", "from_capex_panel": true, "note": "Series lives in the capex panel (rpo field); mirrored here by the sync script." }, { "t": "CRWV", "name": "CoreWeave", "metric": "revenue backlog", "definition": "RPO plus other amounts estimated to become revenue under committed customer contracts (subject to delivery/availability). Not plain RPO.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "report_date": "2025-05-14", "as_of": "2025-05-14", "value": 25.9, "metric": "revenue backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962825000010/coreweave1q25earningspress.htm", "note": "RPO 14.7 + 11.2 other committed", "counterparties": [ "OpenAI", "Microsoft" ], "rpo_component": 14.7 }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "report_date": "2025-08-12", "as_of": "2025-08-12", "value": 30.1, "metric": "revenue backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2025-Results/", "counterparties": [ "OpenAI", "hyperscalers" ] }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "report_date": "2025-11-10", "as_of": "2025-11-10", "value": 55.6, "metric": "revenue backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/financials/quarterly-results/default.aspx", "note": "release also cites OpenAI up to ~$22.4B and Meta up to ~$14.2B contracts (announcements, not additive)", "counterparties": [ "OpenAI", "Meta", "unnamed hyperscaler" ] }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "report_date": "2026-02-26", "as_of": "2026-02-26", "value": 66.8, "metric": "revenue backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962826000094/coreweave4q25earningspress.htm", "counterparties": [ "hyperscalers", "Cognition", "Cursor", "Midjourney", "Runway" ] }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "report_date": "2026-05-07", "as_of": "2026-05-07", "value": 99.4, "metric": "revenue backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-First-Quarter-2026-Results/", "note": "Meta $21B incremental signed March", "counterparties": [ "Meta", "Anthropic", "Cohere", "Mistral" ] }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "report_date": "2026-08-11", "as_of": "2026-08-11", "value": 104.2, "metric": "revenue backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx", "note": "~$104B in release / 104.2 in deck; excludes >$25B net new commitments added early Q3", "counterparties": [ "Cognition", "Databricks", "Hudson River Trading", "Runway" ] } ] }, { "t": "NBIS", "name": "Nebius", "metric": "RPO", "definition": "Aggregate transaction price allocated to remaining performance obligations (excludes contracts ≤1 year; includes estimated variable consideration). No aggregate total was disclosed before FY2025.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "report_date": "2025-05-20", "as_of": "2025-05-20", "value": null, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925050975/tm2515580d1_ex99-2.htm", "note": "no aggregate backlog disclosed (ARR not substituted)" }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "report_date": "2025-08-07", "as_of": "2025-08-07", "value": null, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465925075028/tm2522866d1_ex99-2.htm", "note": "no aggregate backlog disclosed" }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "report_date": "2025-11-11", "as_of": "2025-11-11", "value": null, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://assets.nebius.com/assets/94ab89ea-f954-4516-89f0-1c137e0edd56/Nebius%20Group%20Q3%20Shareholder%20Letter.pdf", "note": "no aggregate; contract values only: Microsoft $17.4–19.4B (Sept), Meta ~$3B (announced on report date, subsequent event)", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft", "Meta" ] }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "report_date": "2026-02-12", "as_of": "2026-02-12", "value": 21.333, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926052948/nbis-20251231x20f.htm", "note": "figure from the FY2025 20-F, not the February letter", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft", "Meta" ] }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "report_date": "2026-05-13", "as_of": "2026-05-13", "value": 33.585, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926064092/nbis-20260331xex99d1.htm", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft", "Meta" ] }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "report_date": "2026-08-12", "as_of": "2026-08-12", "value": 37.491, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1513845/000110465926094844/nbis-20260812xex99d2.htm", "note": "management separately cited ~$40B 'committed backlog' on the call (distinct measure)", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft", "Meta", "Reflection", "Cohere" ] } ] }, { "t": "IREN", "name": "IREN", "metric": "RPO (ASC 606) + contracted lease value (ASC 842)", "definition": "Accounting RPO excluded undelivered/unaccepted Microsoft tranches through FY26Q3; the FY2026 10-K then presented service RPO ($5.1B) and contracted lease value (~$11.4B) with a combined ~$16.6B. Perimeter break — do not read as one series.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "report_date": "2025-05-14", "as_of": "2025-05-14", "value": null, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://iren.gcs-web.com/static-files/f76d5271-b6f5-4004-8799-d2659196c427", "note": "no quantified backlog" }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "report_date": "2025-08-28", "as_of": "2025-08-28", "value": null, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884825000063/iren-20250630.htm", "note": "10-K describes on-demand to 3-year contracts, no quantified backlog" }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "report_date": "2025-11-06", "as_of": "2025-11-06", "value": 0.195, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884825000081/iren-20250930.htm", "note": "Microsoft $9.7B TCV signed after quarter-end (not in RPO)", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft", "Together AI", "Fluidstack", "Fireworks AI" ], "tcv_note": "Microsoft TCV ~9.7 excluded" }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "report_date": "2026-02-05", "as_of": "2026-02-05", "value": 0.289, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000015/iren-20251231.htm", "note": "Microsoft tranches undelivered/unaccepted → excluded from RPO", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft" ] }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "report_date": "2026-05-07", "as_of": "2026-05-07", "value": 0.71, "metric": "RPO", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000026/iren-20260331.htm", "note": "Microsoft TCV ~$9.7B still excluded", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft" ] }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "report_date": "2026-08-27", "as_of": "2026-08-27", "value": 16.6, "metric": "RPO + contracted lease value (company combined total)", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1878848/000187884826000052/iren-20260630.htm", "note": "RPO 5.1 (ASC 606) + ~11.4 lease value (ASC 842); perimeter break vs prior quarters", "counterparties": [ "Microsoft", "Cohere", "Prometheus", "Perplexity", "Figure AI", "Fal AI", "Higgsfield AI", "unnamed frontier lab" ], "rpo_component": 5.1 } ] }, { "t": "APLD", "name": "Applied Digital", "metric": "contracted lease revenue (initial base terms)", "definition": "Total anticipated lease revenue over initial lease terms across campuses; not accounting RPO and not net of recognised revenue. Fiscal year ends May.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-02-28", "report_date": "2025-04-14", "as_of": "2025-04-14", "value": null, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.globenewswire.com/de/news-release/2025/04/14/3061259/0/en/Applied-Digital-Reports-Fiscal-Third-Quarter-2025-Results.html", "note": "no contracted AI/HPC revenue total yet" }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-05-31", "report_date": "2025-07-30", "as_of": "2025-07-30", "value": 7.0, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487925000019/apldq425earningsrelease.htm", "note": "~$7B over ~15-year CoreWeave leases; +~$4B if 150 MW option exercised", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ] }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-08-31", "report_date": "2025-10-09", "as_of": "2025-10-09", "value": 11.0, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487925000068/apldq126earningsrelease.htm", "note": "Polaris Forge 1 incl. the additional 150 MW lease", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ] }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-11-30", "report_date": "2026-01-07", "as_of": "2026-01-07", "value": 16.0, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000002/apldq226earningsrelease.htm", "note": "11 CoreWeave + 5 unnamed US investment-grade hyperscaler, before renewals", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave", "unnamed IG hyperscaler" ] }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-02-28", "report_date": "2026-04-08", "as_of": "2026-04-08", "value": 16.0, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1144879/000114487926000029/apldq326earningsrelease.htm", "note": "'$16 billion of total contracted revenue … $11 billion of CoreWeave and $5 billion to an investment-grade hyperscaler' (CEO, 2026-04-08 call)", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave", "unnamed IG hyperscaler" ], "src_note": "figure stated on the 2026-04-08 earnings call (transcript via FMP earningsTranscript)" }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-05-31", "report_date": "2026-07-27", "as_of": "2026-07-27", "value": 36.0, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/159/applied-digital-reports-fiscal-fourth-quarter-and-full-year", "note": "~$36B base terms / ~$86B with all renewals, five campuses", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave", "IG hyperscaler tenants" ], "with_renewals": 86.0 }, { "q": "2026Q3", "period_end": "2026-08-31", "report_date": "2026-10-07", "as_of": "2026-10-07", "value": 36.0, "metric": "contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://ir.applieddigital.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/163/applied-digital-reports-fiscal-first-quarter-2027-results", "note": "~$36B base / ~$86B with renewals; ~1.41 GW across five campuses", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave", "IG hyperscaler tenants" ], "with_renewals": 86.0 } ] }, { "t": "CORZ", "name": "Core Scientific", "metric": "total contracted revenue (lifetime)", "definition": "Lifetime contract revenue as announced (12-year CoreWeave program), carried forward between updates; not a remaining balance net of recognised revenue.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "report_date": "2025-05-07", "as_of": "2025-05-07", "value": 10.2, "metric": "total contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000162828025008312/ex991-coreweavepressrelease.htm", "note": "~590 MW CoreWeave program after February expansion", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ] }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "report_date": "2025-08-08", "as_of": "2025-08-08", "value": 10.2, "metric": "total contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000162828025039283/q22025corescientificinc-ea.htm", "note": "carry-forward", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "carry_forward": true }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "report_date": "2025-10-24", "as_of": "2025-10-24", "value": 10.2, "metric": "total contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.corescientific.com/news-events/press-releases?year=2025&page=1", "note": "carry-forward", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "carry_forward": true }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "report_date": "2026-03-02", "as_of": "2026-03-02", "value": 10.2, "metric": "total contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1839341/000162828026013214/q42025corescientificinc-ea.htm", "note": "carry-forward", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "carry_forward": true }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "report_date": "2026-05-06", "as_of": "2026-05-06", "value": 10.2, "metric": "total contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.corescientific.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/136/core-scientific-announces-first-quarter-fiscal-year-2026-results", "note": "carry-forward", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "carry_forward": true }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "report_date": "2026-07-28", "as_of": "2026-07-28", "value": 24.0, "metric": "potential contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.corescientific.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001839341-26-000013/q22026corescientificinc-ea.htm", "note": ">$24B potential incl. >$14B base under new AMD agreements; CoreWeave '10+'; reporting-date disclosure, not a June-30 balance", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave", "AMD" ] } ] }, { "t": "GLXY", "name": "Galaxy Digital", "metric": "lifetime contracted lease revenue (Helios / CoreWeave)", "definition": "Galaxy mostly discloses anticipated average ANNUAL lease revenue (>$1B, later >$1.2B) rather than a backlog. Only the 2026Q1 recap states a lifetime total (>$15B). Annual × term is a derived estimate, not a company figure.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "report_date": "2025-05-13", "as_of": "2025-05-13", "value": 9.0, "metric": "incremental lifetime lease revenue (Phase II)", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investor.galaxy.com/static-files/e6138b3d-fb54-4316-a071-bc91bc347313", "note": "~$9B over the second 15-year lease (post-quarter option); Phase I ~$4.5B is press-sourced only", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ] }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "report_date": "2025-08-05", "as_of": "2025-08-05", "value": null, "metric": "lifetime backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investor.galaxy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/galaxy-announces-second-quarter-2025-financial-results", "note": ">$1B anticipated average annual revenue across three phases (annual metric, not backlog)", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "annual_revenue": 1.0 }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "report_date": "2025-10-21", "as_of": "2025-10-21", "value": null, "metric": "lifetime backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1859392/000185939225000073/glxy-20250930xpressrelease.htm", "note": "annual-revenue framing continues; no remaining-balance figure", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "annual_revenue": 1.0 }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "report_date": "2026-02-03", "as_of": "2026-02-03", "value": null, "metric": "lifetime backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1859392/000185939226000009/glxy-20251231xpressrelease_.htm", "note": "no quantified remaining balance", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ] }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "report_date": "2026-04-28", "as_of": "2026-04-28", "value": 15.0, "metric": "lifetime contracted lease revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.galaxy.com/newsroom/q126-unwrapped", "note": ">$15B over the life of the lease agreements (May 4 recap)", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ] }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "report_date": "2026-08-05", "as_of": "2026-08-05", "value": null, "metric": "lifetime backlog", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investor.galaxy.com/news-releases/news-release-details/galaxy-announces-second-quarter-2026-financial-results", "note": ">$1.2B anticipated average annual revenue over the lease term; ~$80M quarterly Phase I revenue from Q3; release does not state $18B", "counterparties": [ "CoreWeave" ], "annual_revenue": 1.2 } ] }, { "t": "WULF", "name": "TeraWulf", "metric": "contracted revenue (platform, base terms)", "definition": "Platform-level contracted revenue as stated in releases/decks; totals change perimeter (Core42 → Fluidstack/Google-backstopped leases → Anthropic direct lease) and include reporting-date events.", "quarters": [ { "q": "2025Q1", "period_end": "2025-03-31", "report_date": "2025-05-09", "as_of": "2025-05-09", "value": 1.0, "metric": "contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.terawulf.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001083301-25-000033/a_wulfformearningsreleas.htm", "note": "~$1B Core42 over initial 10-year terms (carry-forward)", "counterparties": [ "Core42" ], "carry_forward": true }, { "q": "2025Q2", "period_end": "2025-06-30", "report_date": "2025-08-08", "as_of": "2025-08-08", "value": 1.0, "metric": "contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/110/terawulf-reports-second-quarter-2025-results", "note": "carry-forward; Fluidstack leases signed after quarter-end", "counterparties": [ "Core42" ], "carry_forward": true }, { "q": "2025Q3", "period_end": "2025-09-30", "report_date": "2025-11-10", "as_of": "2025-11-10", "value": 17.0, "metric": "contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/126/terawulf-reports-third-quarter-2025-results", "note": ">$17B 'in Q3 and into Q4' (Core42 ~1.1 + Lake Mariner Fluidstack ~6.7 + Abernathy JV); not a clean quarter-end measure", "counterparties": [ "Core42", "Fluidstack", "Google (credit support)" ] }, { "q": "2025Q4", "period_end": "2025-12-31", "report_date": "2026-02-26", "as_of": "2026-02-26", "value": 12.8, "metric": "contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1083301/000108330126000026/a_wulfearningsrelease2026-.htm", "note": ">$12.8B on 522 critical-IT MW (deck ~$13B); perimeter differs from Q3's 17+", "counterparties": [ "Core42", "Fluidstack", "Google (credit support)" ] }, { "q": "2026Q1", "period_end": "2026-03-31", "report_date": "2026-05-08", "as_of": "2026-05-08", "value": 13.0, "metric": "contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.terawulf.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001083301-26-000083/terawulfq12026investorpr.htm", "note": "13+ on 522 MW leased", "counterparties": [ "Core42", "Fluidstack", "Google (credit support)" ] }, { "q": "2026Q2", "period_end": "2026-06-30", "report_date": "2026-08-05", "as_of": "2026-08-05", "value": 27.0, "metric": "contracted revenue", "sourcing": "primary", "src": "https://investors.terawulf.com/sec-filings/all-sec-filings/content/0001083301-26-000162/terawulfq22026investorpr.htm", "note": "~27+ incl. Anthropic ~$19B over 20-year base (up to ~$33B with extensions); reporting-date snapshot", "counterparties": [ "Anthropic", "Core42", "Fluidstack", "Google (credit support)" ] } ] } ] }, "lab_commitments": [ { "date": "2025-01-21", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "SoftBank / Oracle / MGX (Stargate)", "type": "infrastructure program", "usd_b": 500, "gw": null, "term_years": 4, "note": "$500B intended over four years, $100B 'immediately'; umbrella program, not a purchase order", "src": "https://openai.com/index/announcing-the-stargate-project/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "program cost" }, { "date": "2025-03-03", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Lightspeed-led Series E", "type": "equity round", "usd_b": 3.5, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$61.5B post-money", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-e-at-usd61-5b-post-money-valuation", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2025-03-10", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "CoreWeave", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 11.9, "gw": null, "term_years": 5, "note": "up to $11.9B", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Expands-Agreement-with-OpenAI-by-up-to-6-5B/default.aspx", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-03-31", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "SoftBank-led syndicate", "type": "equity round", "usd_b": 40, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$40B announced; SoftBank $30B; closed at $41B on 2025-12-31", "src": "https://openai.com/index/march-funding-updates/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2025-05-15", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "CoreWeave", "type": "cloud contract (expansion)", "usd_b": 4.0, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "up to $4B additional (~$15.9B cumulative), through April 2029", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Expands-Agreement-with-OpenAI-by-up-to-6-5B/default.aspx", "sourcing": "primary", "overlap": "cumulative with 2025-03-10", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-05-22", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "G42 / Oracle / Nvidia / Cisco / SoftBank (Stargate UAE)", "type": "data-center development", "usd_b": null, "gw": 1.0, "term_years": null, "note": "1 GW planned cluster; 0.2 GW in 2026", "src": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-uae/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2025-06-10", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Google Cloud", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": null, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "value and capacity undisclosed", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/openai-taps-google-unprecedented-cloud-deal-despite-ai-rivalry-sources-say-2025-06-10/", "size_kind": "undisclosed" }, { "date": "2025-06-30", "lab": "xAI", "counterparty": "Morgan Stanley-arranged debt + strategic equity", "type": "debt + equity", "usd_b": 10, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$5B secured notes/term loans (2030 maturities, secondary) + $5B equity", "src": "https://x.com/MorganStanley/status/1939768047780172184", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "financing" }, { "date": "2025-07-22", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Oracle (Stargate)", "type": "compute purchase", "usd_b": 300, "gw": 4.5, "term_years": 5, "note": "4.5 GW additional capacity; OpenAI said on 2025-09-23 the partnership 'exceeds $300B' over five years ($300B first appeared in WSJ 2025-09-10)", "src": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-07-31", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Nscale / Aker (Stargate Norway)", "type": "data-center development", "usd_b": null, "gw": 0.23, "term_years": null, "note": "230 MW planned (+290 MW ambition); Nscale and Aker committed ~$1B to the initial 20 MW phase; OpenAI is the initial offtaker — no OpenAI purchase amount", "src": "https://openai.com/index/introducing-stargate-norway/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2025-08-21", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "Google Cloud", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 10, "gw": null, "term_years": 6, "note": ">$10B (Reuters / The Information)", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/business/meta-signs-over-10-billion-cloud-deal-with-google-source-says-2025-08-21/", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-09-02", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "ICONIQ-led Series F", "type": "equity round", "usd_b": 13, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$183B post-money", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-series-f-at-usd183b-post-money-valuation", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2025-09-22", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Nvidia", "type": "chip supply + equity LOI", "usd_b": 100, "gw": 10, "term_years": null, "note": "≥10 GW of Nvidia systems; Nvidia to invest up to $100B progressively — letter of intent, not a closed round", "src": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/openai-and-nvidia-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-10gw-of-nvidia-systems/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "investment in lab" }, { "date": "2025-09-23", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Oracle / SoftBank (five new Stargate sites)", "type": "infrastructure program", "usd_b": 400, "gw": 7.0, "term_years": 3, "note": "nearly 7 GW planned, >$400B over three years; overlaps the Oracle and Stargate rows", "src": "https://openai.com/index/five-new-stargate-sites/", "sourcing": "primary", "overlap": "overlaps 2025-01-21 and 2025-07-22", "size_kind": "program cost" }, { "date": "2025-09-25", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "CoreWeave", "type": "cloud contract (expansion)", "usd_b": 6.5, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "up to $6.5B additional; three agreements ~$22.4B total", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2025/CoreWeave-Expands-Agreement-with-OpenAI-by-up-to-6-5B/default.aspx", "sourcing": "primary", "overlap": "cumulative $22.4B with 2025-03-10 and 2025-05-15", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-09-30", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "CoreWeave", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 14.2, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "up to $14.2B through 2031-12-14, expansion option to 2032; signed 2025-09-25", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1769628/000176962825000050/crwv-20250925.htm", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-10-06", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "AMD", "type": "chip supply + equity warrant", "usd_b": null, "gw": 6.0, "term_years": null, "note": "6 GW across AMD GPU generations, first GW H2 2026; warrant up to 160M AMD shares; no fixed $", "src": "https://openai.com/index/openai-amd-strategic-partnership/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2025-10-07", "lab": "xAI", "counterparty": "Nvidia-backed SPV (GPU lease)", "type": "GPU financing structure", "usd_b": 20, "gw": null, "term_years": 5, "note": "~$7.5B equity + up to $12.5B debt, Nvidia ~$2B equity; Bloomberg-reported proposal", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/business/musks-xai-nears-20-billion-capital-raise-tied-nvidia-chips-bloomberg-news-2025-10-07/", "size_kind": "financing" }, { "date": "2025-10-13", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Broadcom", "type": "custom accelerator supply", "usd_b": null, "gw": 10.0, "term_years": null, "note": "10 GW of OpenAI-designed accelerators, H2 2026–end 2029; financial terms undisclosed", "src": "https://openai.com/index/openai-and-broadcom-announce-strategic-collaboration/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2025-10-21", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "Blue Owl (Hyperion JV)", "type": "data-center financing JV", "usd_b": 27, "gw": null, "term_years": 4, "note": "~$27B development cost, 80/20 Blue Owl/Meta; Blue Owl ~$7B cash; not a compute purchase", "src": "https://about.fb.com/news/2025/10/meta-blue-owl-capital-develop-hyperion-data-center/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "program cost" }, { "date": "2025-10-23", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Google Cloud", "type": "cloud / TPU capacity", "usd_b": null, "gw": 1.0, "term_years": null, "note": "'tens of billions of dollars'; up to 1M TPUs; well over 1 GW online in 2026; no exact $", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/expanding-our-use-of-google-cloud-tpus-and-services", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2025-10-28", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Microsoft Azure", "type": "cloud purchase commitment", "usd_b": 250, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$250B incremental Azure commitment; term undisclosed; excluded from MSFT FY26Q1 RPO", "src": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/10/28/the-next-chapter-of-the-microsoft-openai-partnership/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "purchase commitment" }, { "date": "2025-11-03", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "AWS", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 38, "gw": null, "term_years": 7, "note": "Nvidia GPU/CPU capacity", "src": "https://openai.com/index/aws-and-openai-partnership/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-11-11", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "Nebius", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 3, "gw": null, "term_years": 5, "note": "~$3B", "src": "https://nebius.com/newsroom/nebius-reports-third-quarter-2025-financial-results", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2025-11-12", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Fluidstack (US data centers)", "type": "infrastructure program", "usd_b": 50, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$50B US infrastructure program (Texas, New York first); not a $50B payment obligation to Fluidstack", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-invests-50-billion-in-american-ai-infrastructure", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "program cost" }, { "date": "2025-11-18", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Microsoft Azure / Nvidia", "type": "cloud commitment + equity", "usd_b": 30, "gw": 1.0, "term_years": null, "note": "$30B Azure compute, up to 1 GW; Nvidia up to $10B and Microsoft up to $5B equity attached", "src": "https://blogs.microsoft.com/blog/2025/11/18/microsoft-nvidia-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnerships/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "purchase commitment" }, { "date": "2025-11-19", "lab": "xAI", "counterparty": "HUMAIN (Saudi Arabia)", "type": "data-center development", "usd_b": null, "gw": 0.5, "term_years": null, "note": "framework agreement announced by xAI (primary); the 500 MW size is from Reuters, not the xAI post; no $ commitment", "src": "https://x.ai/news/grok-goes-global", "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-crown-prince-seeks-burnish-image-with-corporate-americas-top-executives-2025-11-19/", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2025-12-11", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Broadcom (Ironwood TPU racks)", "type": "chip-system orders", "usd_b": 21, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$10B Ironwood TPU rack order (FQ3) + $11B further order (FQ4) for late-2026 delivery, customer named as Anthropic on the call; overlaps Google TPU commitments", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1730168/000173016825000116/avgo-11022025x8kxex99.htm", "sourcing": "primary", "overlap": "overlaps 2025-10-23", "src_note": "orders disclosed by the CEO on the 2025-12-11 earnings call (transcript via FMP earningsTranscript); link is that day's release", "size_kind": "chip orders" }, { "date": "2026-01-06", "lab": "xAI", "counterparty": "Valor / StepStone / Fidelity / QIA / MGX / Baron; Nvidia, Cisco strategic", "type": "equity round (Series E)", "usd_b": 20, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$20B raised vs $15B target", "src": "https://x.ai/news/series-e", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2026-01-09", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "SB Energy / SoftBank (Milam County)", "type": "data-center lease + equity", "usd_b": 1.0, "gw": 1.2, "term_years": null, "note": "1.2 GW lease; OpenAI and SoftBank each invest $0.5B in SB Energy (equity flows from OpenAI)", "src": "https://openai.com/index/stargate-sb-energy-partnership/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "equity investment by lab" }, { "date": "2026-01-14", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Cerebras", "type": "compute purchase", "usd_b": null, "gw": 0.75, "term_years": null, "note": "0.75 GW in tranches through 2028; press valued >$10B, later Cerebras filing >$20B (dollar value secondary)", "src": "https://openai.com/index/cerebras-partnership/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2026-02-12", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "GIC / Coatue-led Series G", "type": "equity round", "usd_b": 30, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$380B post-money; includes some previously announced strategic investment", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2026-02-24", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "AMD", "type": "chip supply", "usd_b": null, "gw": 6.0, "term_years": null, "note": "up to 6 GW AMD Instinct, first shipments H2 2026", "src": "https://about.fb.com/news/2026/02/meta-amd-partner-longterm-ai-infrastructure-agreement/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "SoftBank / Nvidia / Amazon", "type": "equity round", "usd_b": 110, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$110B: SoftBank 30, Nvidia 30, Amazon 50 (15 initial + 35 conditional); enlarged to $122B committed at $852B post on 2026-03-31", "src": "https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "AWS", "type": "cloud contract (expansion)", "usd_b": 100, "gw": 2.0, "term_years": 8, "note": "$100B additional to the $38B agreement; ~2 GW Trainium", "src": "https://openai.com/index/amazon-partnership/", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-02-27", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "Nvidia", "type": "compute capacity", "usd_b": null, "gw": 5.0, "term_years": null, "note": "3 GW inference + 2 GW training on Vera Rubin; do not add to the 10 GW LOI", "src": "https://openai.com/index/scaling-ai-for-everyone/", "sourcing": "primary", "overlap": "may overlap 2025-09-22 LOI", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2026-03-16", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "Nebius", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 27, "gw": null, "term_years": 5, "note": "$12B dedicated + up to $15B additional capacity; dedicated delivery from early 2027", "src": "https://assets.nebius.com/assets/2e145023-e8ff-45c6-80f5-c12d1edbfcaa/20260316%20Nebius%20signs%20new%20AI%20infrastructure%20agreement%20with%20Meta;%20deal%20to%20accelerate%20growth%20of%20Nebius%E2%80%99s%20core%20business%20in%20AI%20cloud%20.pdf", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Google / Broadcom", "type": "TPU compute capacity", "usd_b": null, "gw": 3.5, "term_years": null, "note": "'multiple GW'; Broadcom 8-K ~3.5 GW from 2027; later described as 5 GW overall", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/google-broadcom-partnership-compute", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "CoreWeave", "type": "cloud contract (expansion)", "usd_b": 21, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "~$21B ADDITIONAL to the $14.2B, service 2027–Dec 2032", "src": "https://www.coreweave.com/news/coreweave-and-meta-announce-21-billion-expanded-ai-infrastructure-agreement", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "CoreWeave", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": null, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "multi-year, value and capacity undisclosed; phased from late 2026", "src": "https://investors.coreweave.com/news/news-details/2026/CoreWeave-Announces-Multi-Year-Agreement-With-Anthropic/default.aspx", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "undisclosed" }, { "date": "2026-04-20", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "AWS", "type": "cloud / compute purchase", "usd_b": 100, "gw": 5.0, "term_years": 10, "note": ">$100B AWS commitment, up to 5 GW; Amazon $5B immediate + up to $20B further equity", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-amazon-compute", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "purchase commitment" }, { "date": "2026-04-24", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Google", "type": "equity commitment", "usd_b": 40, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$10B immediate + $30B contingent; company-confirmed to press, no standalone release", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/business/google-plans-invest-up-40-billion-anthropic-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-04-24/", "size_kind": "investment in lab" }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Google Cloud", "type": "cloud spending commitment", "usd_b": 200, "gw": null, "term_years": 5, "note": "~$200B reported (The Information / Reuters); unconfirmed, do not add to the GW rows", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "overlap": "overlaps 2026-04-06", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/business/anthropic-commits-spending-200-billion-googles-cloud-chips-information-reports-2026-05-05/", "size_kind": "purchase commitment" }, { "date": "2026-05-06", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "SpaceX / xAI (Colossus)", "type": "compute purchase", "usd_b": null, "gw": 0.3, "term_years": 3, "note": ">0.3 GW, >220k GPUs on Colossus 1; later SpaceX filing: ~325k GPUs at $1.25B/month through May 2029 with 90-day cancellation rights", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "capacity only" }, { "date": "2026-05-28", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Altimeter / Dragoneer / Greenoaks / Sequoia-led Series H", "type": "equity round", "usd_b": 65, "gw": null, "term_years": null, "note": "$965B post-money; includes previously committed strategic capital", "src": "https://www.anthropic.com/news/series-h", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "funding round" }, { "date": "2026-07-06", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "TeraWulf (Justified Data campus, KY)", "type": "data-center lease", "usd_b": 19, "gw": 0.401, "term_years": 20, "note": "~$19B contracted revenue, 401 MW critical IT, two 5-year renewals", "src": "https://investors.terawulf.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/142/terawulf-announces-anthropic-lease-at-justified-data-campus-and-sale-of-majority-interest-in-abernathy-joint-venture-to-fluidstack", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-07-22", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "AMD", "type": "chip supply + equity", "usd_b": 5, "gw": 2.0, "term_years": null, "note": "up to 2 GW MI450-series, first GW H1 2027; AMD invests up to $5B", "src": "https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1292/amd-and-anthropic-announce-strategic-partnership-to-deploy-up-to-2-gigawatts-of-amd-instinct-mi450-series-gpus", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "investment in lab" }, { "date": "2026-07-28", "lab": "Meta", "counterparty": "BlackRock (El Paso JV)", "type": "data-center financing JV", "usd_b": 14, "gw": 1.0, "term_years": 4, "note": "~$14B development cost, 1 GW campus, 80/20 BlackRock/Meta, $12.5B debt; not a compute purchase", "src": "https://investor.atmeta.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2026/Meta-Announces-New-Strategic-Venture-with-BlackRock-to-Develop-Data-Center-in-El-Paso/default.aspx", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "program cost" }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "lab": "Anthropic (reported)", "counterparty": "Volta Infra (Bitdeer Norway)", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 10, "gw": 0.133, "term_years": null, "note": "Volta announced $10B with an unnamed AI company; Anthropic attribution and the six-year term are Bloomberg-reported; Bitdeer's underlying Tydal lease ($4.7B, 121 IT MW) is in its own release", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/business/ai-cloud-startup-volta-valued-24-billion-announces-10-billion-ai-partnership-2026-08-04/", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-08-17", "lab": "OpenAI", "counterparty": "SB Energy / Nvidia (PORTS-Pike, Ohio)", "type": "data-center lease + vendor guarantee", "usd_b": 105, "gw": 4.25, "term_years": 20, "note": "Nvidia 8-K: residual value guaranties on leases for ~4.25 GW IT load, OpenAI affiliate as tenant, Nvidia obligation capped at $105B for the initial commitment, ready-for-service from 2028 — a guarantee ceiling, not lease revenue", "src": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026000069/nvda-20260817.htm", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "guarantee cap" }, { "date": "2026-08-26", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Nscale (West Virginia)", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 45, "gw": 0.46, "term_years": 6, "note": "Vera Rubin capacity", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/anthropic-pay-nscale-45-billion-rent-ai-computing-power-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-08-26/", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-08-31", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Lambda (Hut 8-developed Nueces County)", "type": "cloud contract", "usd_b": 35, "gw": 0.35, "term_years": null, "note": "Lambda is the compute counterparty; Hut 8 develops the site", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "press_src": "https://www.reuters.com/technology/anthropic-signs-35-billion-cloud-deal-with-nvidia-backed-lambda-source-says-2026-08-31/", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-09-24", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Akamai", "type": "cloud contract + warrant", "usd_b": 11.6, "gw": null, "term_years": 7, "note": "$11.6B committed, up to $9B more; warrant ~5% of Akamai", "src": "https://www.akamai.com/newsroom/press-release/akamai-announces-11-6-billion-multi-year-agreement-with-anthropic-to-support-growing-demand", "sourcing": "primary", "size_kind": "contract value" }, { "date": "2026-10-01", "lab": "Anthropic", "counterparty": "Broadcom (TPU lease) / financing partner", "type": "lease commitment + convertible facility", "usd_b": 125.2, "gw": null, "term_years": 5, "note": "$125.2B five-year TPU lease commitment and up to $42B convertible facility per Reuters on IPO materials; overlaps existing TPU rows", "src": null, "sourcing": "secondary", "overlap": "overlaps 2026-04-06 and 2025-12-11", "press_src": "https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/01/broadcom-lending-anthropic-42-billion-chips-reuters.html", "size_kind": "lease commitment" } ], "capacity_crosscheck": { "source": null, "capacity_as_of": "2026-10-25", "deduped_tickers": [ "APLD", "BTDR", "CIFR", "CORZ", "DOCN", "GLXY", "HUT", "IREN", "KEEL", "MARA", "NBIS", "RIOT", "WULF", "WYFI" ], "op_mw": 1334.5, "con_mw": 6338, "plan_mw": 10262, "tenant_contracted_mw": 6322.7, "tenants_counted": 22, "tenants_undisclosed_mw": 6, "method": "Sum of tenants[i].mw where the landlord/operator ticker is not flagged dupe in the tracker (CRWV tenant overlap, ORCL/SPCX benchmarks, BTBT parent, AKAM context excluded). Tenant rows with undisclosed MW are counted but add 0. Includes non-hyperscaler tenants (Fluidstack, AMD, AI labs). A disclosure total, not a capacity forecast." } }